GOP in trouble in NH?

Posted on December 4, 2007

Real Clear Politics has opined that the GOP is in trouble in NH.

Part of their thinking is:

One indicator to watch: What percentage of independent voters choose Democratic ballots during the state’s January 8th primary? In 2000, a large majority took a Republican ballot, helping Sen. John McCain win big and rejuvenating his campaign. This year, though, speculation is mounting that a vast majority of the undeclared will pick up a Democratic ballot.

Having been in the grassroots in NH in 2000, I can point out that this is all bunk. Yes, lots of independents pulled GOP ballots and voted McCain in 2000. There was no race on the Dem side - Gore was the default winner, no challenger was there. The “independents” which are really undeclared - there is no such thing in NH as an “Independent” there are Republicans, there are Democrats and there are those who chose not to declare a party - these undeclared voters are quite often those who for various reasons want their true party affiliation to be secret. This includes teachers, state employees and those who just don’t want to be barraged with campaign mailings. (This last reason has backfired since most campaigns now mail as much or more to the undeclareds who vote as to the party voters.)

In 2000 with nothing on the Dem ballot to entice them, the undeclareds and some Dem voters that figured out they really can undeclare on election day, declared themselves to be GOP voters for the moment and took the GOP ballot. They had no intention to vote for McCain in the general election but he was the “moderate” who was closest to their views, so he got their votes. When the general election came - Bush won.

This year, there is a heated battle on the Dem side so the left leaning (and hidden Dems) will take the Dem ballot and vote for someone there. The only people taking a GOP ballot will be people who actually consider themselves Republicans or who legitimately back the candidate they will be voting for, they will not be “playing games” in a party they have no affiliation with.

So yes, people who voted GOP in the 2000 primary will indeed vote in the Democrat primary in ‘08. This will not be a bad thing for the GOP - this is a good thing for the GOP. It is also a good thing for the Democrats. They will have a real contested primary, not a coronation.

RCP also points to polling in the Sununu Shaheen senate re-match as an indicator of bad things for the GOP. They give more credence to the UNH polls with small samples. They discount other polls that show a much closer race. They also point to the Democrat takeover of the state legislature last year. Look more closely at the election last year and you will see that with no top of the ballot candidates to draw GOP voters and the general apathy of GOP voters, the Dems won by doing excellent - presidential year style - get out the vote and attracting to the polls presidential year numbers of Democrat voters. The GOP did their usual off year election GOTV and fell slightly short of their usual off year numbers and the Dems won. Their gains were far short of the margin of victory in the ‘04 presidential election cycle. Unless GOP voters stay home in droves next fall, the Dems stand to lose most if not all they won in ‘06.

Another factor that bodes ill for the Dems holding on to the lower tier seats, they pushed through a change in the election NH laws that stops the straight ticket voting that helped their state representative candidates benefit from top of the ballot voters. This coming year, the only votes a state senator or state representative will receive will be from those voters who work their way to the bottom and check off their name. They will not get the votes of people who come to vote for President and also checked off Democrat at the top. This may turn out to be the biggest legislative blunder the Democrats made in their first overall majority in a century.

» Filed Under Sununu, Democrats, general nonsense, Legislators, New Hampshire, Presidential Primary, NH Politics